Where the market is wrong on Sumqayıt v Qarabag
Sumqayıt meet Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa regular season - 3 at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium, Sumqayit.
Qarabag rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1611 to 1400. Recent form leans Qarabag, 64% against 24%. Attacking output favors Qarabag on expected goals, 1.7 to 0.9 per match.
Sumqayıt arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Qarabag, L 1-3 v Neftchi Baku, L 3-4 v Qarabag, L 1-2 @ Zira.
Qarabag are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Sumqayıt, L 1-4 v Twente, W 1-0 @ Twente, W 3-1 v Şamaxı FK.
Qarabag hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 2 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sumqayıt 0-1 Qarabag.
The market prices SUM at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Sumqayıt: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
