Where the market is wrong on Palermo v Padova
Palermo meet Padova in the Serie B regular season - 5 at Renzo Barbera, Palermo.
Palermo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1466. Recent form leans Palermo, 68% against 43%. Attacking output favors Palermo on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.1 per match.
Palermo arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Avellino, W 3-1 v Sampdoria, W 5-2 v Mantova, W 3-2 @ Arezzo.
Padova are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Ascoli, L 1-3 @ Cremonese, D 1-1 v Hellas Verona, W 1-0 @ Pisa.
Palermo hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Padova 0-1 Palermo.
The market prices PAL at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Padova: a 8.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
