Dundalk v Castlebar Celtic: the model read
Dundalk meet Castlebar Celtic in the FAI Cup round of 16 at Oriel Park, Dundalk. The model makes Castlebar Celtic the most likely outcome at 61%, with the full read 15% DUN, 23% draw, 61% CAS.
Castlebar Celtic rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1880 to 1558. Recent form leans Castlebar Celtic, 100% against 57%. Attacking output favors Castlebar Celtic on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Castlebar Celtic at 80%; double chance reads Dundalk or draw 39%, Castlebar Celtic or draw 85%.
Dundalk arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ St Patrick's Athl., W 3-1 @ St Mochta's, L 1-2 v Drogheda United, L 1-2 @ Shelbourne.
Castlebar Celtic are in good touch: 3W-0D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Douglas Hall, W 3-0 v North End United, W 4-1 @ North End United.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
