Caldas v União Santarém: the model read
Caldas meet União Santarém in the Liga 3 regular season - 13 at Campo da Mata, Caldas da Rainha. The model makes União Santarém the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 28% CAL, 34% draw, 37% UNI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans União Santarém, 43% against 33%. Attacking output favors União Santarém on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans União Santarém at 57%; double chance reads Caldas or draw 63%, União Santarém or draw 72%.
Caldas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ 1º Dezembro, D 1-1 v SC Covilha, L 0-2 @ Atlético CP, W 2-1 @ Amora.
União Santarém are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Varzim, L 0-1 @ Amarante, D 1-1 @ CF Os Belenenses, D 1-1 v Academica.
União Santarém hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Caldas 0-2 União Santarém.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
