Mafra v SC Covilha: the model read
Mafra meet SC Covilha in the Liga 3 regular season - 4 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Mafra the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% MAF, 32% draw, 32% SC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Mafra at 54%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 68%, SC Covilha or draw 63%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
SC Covilha are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Amora, D 1-1 @ Caldas, L 0-1 @ Lusitano Évora 1911, W 2-1 v Atlético CP.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Mafra 2-0 SC Covilha.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
