Where the market is wrong on Mafra v SC Covilha
Mafra meet SC Covilha in the Liga 3 regular season - 4 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra.
The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Mafra arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v SC Covilha, W 3-2 @ Atlético Malveira, L 1-2 @ Lusitano Évora 1911, D 1-1 @ Atlético CP.
SC Covilha are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Mafra, D 0-0 v Mortágua, L 0-3 v Atlético CP, D 0-0 @ Vitória de Sernache.
The market prices MAF at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on SC Covilha: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
