Where the market is wrong on Lancaster City v Workington
Lancaster City meet Workington in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 8.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 55%. Attacking output favors Lancaster City on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Lancaster City at 54%; double chance reads Lancaster City or draw 67%, Workington or draw 62%.
Lancaster City arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Guiseley AFC, W 1-0 @ Bury, D 2-2 v Quorn, L 1-3 @ Redcar Athletic.
Workington are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Leek Town, W 3-2 v Rylands, W 2-1 @ United of Manchester, L 1-4 @ Avro.
The market prices LAN at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
