Gama v America-RN

Gama meet America-RN in the Serie D round of 16. The model makes Gama the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% GAM, 33% draw, 32% AME.

The baseline ratings are close, 1730 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gama, 80% against 68%. Attacking output favors Gama on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 31%. Draw no bet leans Gama at 53%; double chance reads Gama or draw 68%, America-RN or draw 64%.

Gama arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v America-RN, L 0-1 @ America-RN, W 2-0 v Porto Velho, L 0-2 @ Porto Velho.

America-RN are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Gama, W 1-0 v Gama, W 2-1 v Trem, W 4-1 @ Trem.

The market prices GAM at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on America-RN: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.