Where the market is wrong on CSA v São Luiz
CSA meet São Luiz in the Serie D round of 16. The model makes CSA the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% CSA, 30% draw, 22% SÃO.
CSA rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1686 to 1477. Recent form leans CSA, 76% against 48%. Attacking output favors CSA on expected goals, 2.4 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 33%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans CSA at 69%; double chance reads CSA or draw 78%, São Luiz or draw 51%.
CSA arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v São Luiz, D 0-0 @ São Luiz, W 4-0 v Ipatinga, L 0-1 @ Ipatinga.
São Luiz are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ CSA, D 0-0 v CSA, W 2-1 v Velo Clube, L 1-2 @ Velo Clube.
The market prices CSA at 67% implied. Our number sits apart on São Luiz: a 10.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
