ASA v Cianorte

ASA meet Cianorte in the Serie D round of 16. The model makes ASA the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% ASA, 34% draw, 26% CIA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ASA, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors ASA on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans ASA at 61%; double chance reads ASA or draw 74%, Cianorte or draw 60%.

ASA arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Cianorte, W 1-0 @ Cianorte, W 4-0 v Ivinhema, W 2-1 @ Ivinhema.

Cianorte are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ ASA, L 0-1 v ASA, D 0-0 @ XV de Piracicaba, W 4-0 v XV de Piracicaba.

ASA hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ASA 5-1 Cianorte.

The market prices ASA at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Cianorte: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.