Where the market is wrong on Kidderminster Harriers v Barrow
Kidderminster Harriers meet Barrow in the National League regular season - 5 at Aggborough Stadium, Kidderminster.
Kidderminster Harriers rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1443. Recent form leans Kidderminster Harriers, 75% against 40%. Attacking output favors Kidderminster Harriers on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Kidderminster Harriers at 72%; double chance reads Kidderminster Harriers or draw 79%, Barrow or draw 46%.
Kidderminster Harriers arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Southend, D 1-1 v Aldershot Town, W 1-0 v Eastleigh, L 0-3 @ AFC Hornchurch.
Barrow are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Yeovil Town, D 2-2 @ Harrogate Town, L 1-2 v AFC Hornchurch, L 0-2 @ Hartlepool.
Barrow hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2017: Barrow 1-0 Kidderminster Harriers.
The market prices KID at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Kidderminster Harriers: a 15.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
