Venezia defeated Dolomiti Bellunesi 4-2 in a Club Friendly, a result that extended beyond the Lemeister model's projection of a 3-0 home victory. The model gave Venezia a 64 per cent win probability, and while the home side exceeded its expected goal tally, the defensive lapses that allowed two second-half goals will be a concern. The data shows Venezia controlled the match territorially, but the final scoreline was closer than the underlying dominance suggested.
The scoring opened in the 29th minute when L. Clemenza put Dolomiti Bellunesi ahead with a normal goal, a strike that came against the run of play given Venezia's sustained territorial pressure. The home side responded just before the interval, M. Dagasso equalising in the 45th minute to send the teams level at half-time. That goal steadied Venezia after a period of frustration, during which they had controlled possession without finding a way through the visitors' defensive organisation.
Venezia took the lead for the first time in the 59th minute through B. Franjic, and the advantage was doubled when G. Busio made it 3-1 in the 69th minute. With a two-goal cushion and the momentum clearly in their favour, Venezia appeared to have the contest under control. However, Dolomiti Bellunesi demonstrated resilience, and T. Olonisakin pulled a goal back in the 79th minute to reduce the deficit to 3-2 and set up a tense final 10 minutes. Venezia eventually sealed the win in the 88th minute when A. Rrahmani scored the fourth, restoring their two-goal cushion and ensuring the three-goal margin predicted by the Lemeister model was not exceeded.
The absence of recorded match statistics, including possession, shots, expected goals and passing, limits the depth of quantitative analysis. However, the goal data provides a clear narrative. Venezia had four different scorers from open play, none of whom were credited with an assist, suggesting that the goals were either individual efforts or the result of defensive errors rather than creative build-up play. Dolomiti Bellunesi's two goals, scored by Clemenza and Olonisakin, demonstrated their ability to create chances on the counter-attack, but they could not sustain that threat for the full 90 minutes. No cards were issued, indicating a clean contest with little disciplinary friction, and neither side made any substitutions, meaning the starting line-ups completed the full match.
With no player ratings available, the evaluation of individual performances rests on goal contributions. Dagasso, Franjic, Busio and Rrahmani all made telling impacts for the winners, each finding the net at key moments. For the visitors, Clemenza opened the scoring with a composed finish, while Olonisakin's goal late in the second half briefly gave Dolomiti Bellunesi hope of an unlikely comeback. The absence of assists on any of the six goals suggests that the attacking work was predominantly individual, with little evidence of the combination play that often characterises settled sides.
For Venezia, this friendly served as a useful test of their squad depth and their ability to respond to an early setback. They recovered from going behind to score four times, though the two goals conceded to a lower-tier opponent highlight defensive vulnerabilities that will need addressing before competitive matches begin. The Lemeister model's projection of a 3-0 win was broadly accurate in terms of Venezia's superiority, but the actual result was a 4-2 scoreline that reflected both the home side's attacking potency and their defensive fragility. Dolomiti Bellunesi, while ultimately defeated, can take encouragement from their willingness to attack and their ability to find the net twice against a higher-level opponent.
