Where the market is wrong on Rubio NU v Sportivo Ameliano
Rubio NU meet Sportivo Ameliano in the Division Profesional - Clausura clausura - 2 at La Arboleda, Asuncion. The model makes Sportivo Ameliano the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 27% RUB, 35% draw, 38% SPO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sportivo Ameliano, 55% against 40%. Attacking output favors Sportivo Ameliano on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 23%, over 2.5 goals around 17%. Draw no bet leans Sportivo Ameliano at 59%; double chance reads Rubio NU or draw 62%, Sportivo Ameliano or draw 73%.
Rubio NU arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Sportivo Ameliano, L 0-1 @ 2 de Mayo, L 0-2 @ Cerro Porteno, D 1-1 v Nacional Asuncion.
Sportivo Ameliano are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Rubio NU, D 1-1 v Nacional Asuncion, L 1-2 v Sportivo Trinidense, L 0-1 @ Club Guarani.
The market prices RUB at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
