Tatran Všechovice v Unie Hlubina

Tatran Všechovice and Unie Hlubina played out a 1-1 draw in the 1/128-finals of the Cup, a contest decided by a marathon penalty shootout in which the home side triumphed 4-3 without a single miss recorded. The Lemeister model had given Tatran Všechovice a 38 per cent chance of victory, making them narrow favourites, but the data suggests a match that remained finely poised until the final minutes of normal time. The absence of any match statistics or player ratings means the analysis must rely entirely on the goal timeline and the shootout sequence, yet those details alone reveal a tie defined by late drama and flawless spot-kick execution.

The deadlock was broken in the 83rd minute when Unie Hlubina took the lead through F. Sotornik. The goal was recorded as a normal strike with no assist, and it gave the visitors a platform to see out the remaining regulation time. Tatran Všechovice responded with immediate urgency, and their persistence paid off five minutes later. R. Skacel equalised in the 88th minute, also without an assist, to send the tie into extra time. Neither side could find a winner in the additional 30 minutes, forcing the match to a penalty shootout.

The shootout was a test of nerve that extended across four rounds. The 121st minute saw both sides convert their opening penalties, establishing a pattern of accuracy that would continue. The 122nd minute produced two more successful kicks, one for each team, leaving the score level. The turning point arrived in the 123rd minute, when Tatran Všechovice scored to take the lead. Unie Hlubina were unable to respond in the 124th minute, and Tatran Všechovice converted their final spot-kick to seal a 4-3 shootout victory. The data shows no missed penalties were recorded, meaning the outcome was decided by Unie Hlubina not having a kick in the final round.

The pre-match probabilities indicated a slight edge for Tatran Všechovice, who were given a 38 per cent chance of winning, with the draw rated at 28 per cent and an away victory at 34 per cent. The projected scoreline of 2-1 in favour of the home side proved optimistic, as neither team managed more than one goal in open play. The result aligned with the model's expectation of a tight contest, though the penalty shootout introduced an element that the statistical forecast could not capture.

The fixture lacked any recorded cards, suggesting both sides kept their discipline throughout the 124 minutes of action. The absence of substitutes indicates that neither coach made changes to the starting lineup over the course of the match. For Tatran Všechovice, the victory keeps their cup campaign alive in a competition where a single defeat can end a run. For Unie Hlubina, the frustration of leading so late only to lose on penalties will be significant, especially as F. Sotornik's goal had put them in a strong position. The result moves Tatran Všechovice into the next round, while Unie Hlubina exit the Cup at the earliest stage. The 4-3 shootout scoreline will not be recorded in the competition's history as a classic, but it will be remembered as a tie in which neither side blinked from the spot until the very last kick.