Durango v Tapatío: the model read
Durango meet Tapatío in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 13 at Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango. The model makes Durango the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% DUR, 27% draw, 22% TAP.
Durango rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1500. Recent form leans Durango, 78% against 48%. Attacking output favors Tapatío on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Durango at 70%; double chance reads Durango or draw 78%, Tapatío or draw 49%.
Durango arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Tepatitlán, D 0-0 v Deportiva Venados, L 1-2 @ Deportiva Venados, W 2-1 v Deportivo Zap.
Tapatío are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 @ Leon, L 0-1 @ Cancún, D 1-1 v Cancún, L 1-3 @ Dorados.
Tapatío hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Durango 2-5 Tapatío.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
