Where the market is wrong on Cancún v CA La Paz
Cancún meet CA La Paz in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors CA La Paz on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans CA La Paz at 57%; double chance reads Cancún or draw 60%, CA La Paz or draw 70%.
Cancún arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v CA La Paz, W 1-0 @ Piratas, W 2-0 v Durango, L 1-4 @ Monarcas.
CA La Paz are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Cancún, D 1-1 v Cruz Azul Hidalgo, W 2-0 v Piratas, W 5-0 @ Tepatitlán.
Cancún hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cancún 1-2 CA La Paz.
The market prices CAN at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on CA La Paz: a 6.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
