Where the market is wrong on Veles v Arsenal Tula
Veles meet Arsenal Tula in the First League regular season - 8 at Avangard Stadium, Domodedovo.
Veles rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1528 to 1407. Recent form leans Veles, 53% against 39%. Attacking output favors Veles on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 44%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Veles at 59%; double chance reads Veles or draw 72%, Arsenal Tula or draw 59%.
Veles arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Arsenal Tula, W 3-2 v Nizhny Novgorod, L 0-2 @ Ska-khabarovsk, W 2-1 v Leningradets.
Arsenal Tula are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Veles, W 2-1 v Rotor Volgograd, D 0-0 @ Leningradets, D 2-2 @ Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Veles hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Veles 2-0 Arsenal Tula.
The market prices VEL at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Veles: a 13.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
