Where the market is wrong on Leningradets v FC Sochi
Leningradets meet FC Sochi in the First League regular season - 4 at Petrovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg. The model makes FC Sochi the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 29% LEN, 29% draw, 41% FC .
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 48%. Attacking output favors FC Sochi on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans FC Sochi at 59%; double chance reads Leningradets or draw 59%, FC Sochi or draw 71%.
Leningradets arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 0 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Ural, L 0-2 @ Shinnik Yaroslavl, L 0-3 @ FC UFA, L 0-3 @ Dinamo Makhachkala.
FC Sochi are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Arsenal Tula, L 0-2 v Spartak Kostroma, D 2-2 @ Shinnik Yaroslavl, L 0-3 v Torpedo Moskva.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: FC Sochi 1-1 Leningradets.
The market prices LEN at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Leningradets: a 11.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
