Where the market is wrong on Ammanford AFC v Cardiff MET
Ammanford AFC meet Cardiff MET in the Premier League regular season - 6 at Ammanford Recreation Ground, Ammanford.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 55%. Attacking output favors Cardiff MET on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Ammanford AFC at 50%; double chance reads Ammanford AFC or draw 65%, Cardiff MET or draw 65%.
Ammanford AFC arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Trefelin, L 0-2 v GAP Connah S Quay FC, L 0-2 @ Airbus UK, D 2-2 v Colwyn Bay.
Cardiff MET are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Briton Ferry, L 0-5 v The New Saints, L 0-1 @ Barry Town, W 2-0 @ Airbus UK.
Cardiff MET hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Ammanford AFC 0-3 Cardiff MET.
The market prices AMM at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on Ammanford AFC: a 17.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
