Where the market is wrong on Estoril v Arouca
Estoril meet Arouca in the Primeira Liga regular season - 5 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril.
Arouca rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans Arouca, 53% against 30%. Attacking output favors Arouca on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Estoril arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Benfica, L 0-2 v Rio Ave, L 0-2 @ Nacional, D 1-1 v Famalicao.
Arouca are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Maritimo, L 0-2 @ FC Porto, W 4-0 v Moreirense, W 1-0 @ Vitória SC.
The market prices EST at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Arouca: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
