Where the market is wrong on Orihuela v Lorca Deportiva
Orihuela meet Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 group 3 - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Orihuela, 48% against 35%. Attacking output favors Orihuela on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Orihuela arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lorca Deportiva, W 3-1 @ San Fernando CD, W 2-1 @ Real Murcia II, L 0-1 v Cieza.
Lorca Deportiva are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Orihuela, D 1-1 v Elche II, L 0-1 @ Águilas, L 0-1 @ Deportiva Minera.
Orihuela hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Orihuela 1-0 Lorca Deportiva.
The market prices ORI at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output