Where the market is wrong on Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon meet Celta de Vigo II in the Segunda División regular season - 8 at El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, Gijon.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Celta de Vigo II, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Celta de Vigo II on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
Sporting Gijon arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Oviedo, W 3-1 @ FC Andorra, L 0-1 v Eldense, L 0-2 v Girona.
Celta de Vigo II are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Sabadell, L 0-2 @ Almeria, L 0-4 v Eibar, W 2-0 @ AD Ceuta FC.
The market prices SPO at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Celta de Vigo II: a 21.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
