Where the market is wrong on Polonia Środa v Gedania Gdansk
Polonia Środa meet Gedania Gdansk in the III Liga - Group 2 group ii - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1577 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Polonia Środa, 58% against 43%. Attacking output favors Polonia Środa on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 85%. Draw no bet leans Polonia Środa at 63%; double chance reads Polonia Środa or draw 73%, Gedania Gdansk or draw 53%.
Polonia Środa arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 v Gedania Gdansk, W 3-2 @ Lipno Stęszew, W 4-1 v Stargard Szczeciński, W 4-1 @ Chemik Bydgoszcz.
Gedania Gdansk are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Polonia Środa, L 2-3 v Lech Poznań II, D 2-2 @ Kluczevia Stargard, D 1-1 v Wda Świecie.
Polonia Środa hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Polonia Środa 4-3 Gedania Gdansk.
The market prices POL at 72% implied. Our number sits apart on Gedania Gdansk: a 15.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
