Where the market is wrong on York v Peterborough
York meet Peterborough in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes York the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 50% YOR, 27% draw, 24% PET.
York rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1408. Recent form leans York, 75% against 38%. Attacking output favors York on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans York at 68%; double chance reads York or draw 76%, Peterborough or draw 50%.
York arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Al-Ettifaq, L 1-5 v Sunderland, L 2-4 @ Pickering Town, W 2-1 v Barnsley.
Peterborough are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Boston United, W 1-0 @ Peterborough Sports, W 3-2 @ Colchester, D 0-0 v NEOM.
The market prices YOR at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on York: a 11.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
