Where the market is wrong on Dollingstown v Linfield
Dollingstown meet Linfield in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Dollingstown the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% DOL, 28% draw, 30% LIN.
Dollingstown rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1500. Recent form leans Dollingstown, 66% against 48%. Attacking output favors Dollingstown on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Dollingstown at 58%; double chance reads Dollingstown or draw 70%, Linfield or draw 58%.
Dollingstown arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Newry City AFC, W 3-2 v Moyola Park, W 3-0 @ Banbridge Town, W 3-2 v Strabane Athletic.
Linfield are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Limavady United, L 0-2 v Doncaster, D 2-2 v Kalju Nomme, L 0-2 v Aberdeen.
The market prices DOL at 7% implied. Our number sits apart on Dollingstown: a 34.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
