Where the market is wrong on Osaka v Ventforet Kofu
Osaka meet Ventforet Kofu in the J-League Cup round of 128 at Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Higashiosaka.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 48%. Attacking output favors Osaka on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Osaka arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Matsumoto Yamaga, W 3-0 v Ventforet Kofu, D 0-0 @ Renofa Yamaguchi, L 1-2 @ Shimizu S-pulse.
Ventforet Kofu are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Montedio Yamagata, L 0-3 @ Osaka, W 2-1 v Consadole Sapporo, W 3-1 @ Consadole Sapporo.
Osaka hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Osaka 3-0 Ventforet Kofu.
The market prices OSA at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
