Where the market is wrong on Universitatea Craiova v Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova meet Petrolul Ploiesti in the Liga I regular season - 3 at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova. The model makes Universitatea Craiova the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% UNI, 31% draw, 28% PET.
Universitatea Craiova rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1466. Recent form leans Universitatea Craiova, 65% against 45%. Attacking output favors Universitatea Craiova on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Universitatea Craiova at 60%; double chance reads Universitatea Craiova or draw 72%, Petrolul Ploiesti or draw 58%.
Universitatea Craiova arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Dinamo Bucuresti, L 0-1 @ Levski Sofia, W 4-0 v Uta Arad, W 1-0 v ML Vitebsk.
Petrolul Ploiesti are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Arges Pitesti, W 1-0 v Dinamo Bucuresti, D 2-2 v Chindia Targoviste, D 1-1 v ASA Targu Mures.
Universitatea Craiova hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Petrolul Ploiesti 0-4 Universitatea Craiova.
The market prices UNI at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on Petrolul Ploiesti: a 14.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
