Where the market is wrong on Spartak Moscow v Rodina Moskva
Spartak Moscow meet Rodina Moskva in the Cup group stage - 3 at Lukoil Arena, Moscow.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Spartak Moscow, 70% against 53%. Attacking output favors Rodina Moskva on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.
Spartak Moscow arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Rodina Moskva, D 1-1 v FC Orenburg, W 2-0 v Zenit, D 1-1 @ Rubin.
Rodina Moskva are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 6 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Spartak Moscow, L 0-3 v Baltika, L 1-3 @ Dynamo, L 1-4 v FC Orenburg.
Spartak Moscow hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Spartak Moscow 3-1 Rodina Moskva.
The market prices SPA at 74% implied. Our number sits apart on Rodina Moskva: a 16.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
