Derby v Birmingham: the model read
Derby meet Birmingham in the Championship regular season - 7 at Pride Park, Derby.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Birmingham, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Birmingham on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Derby arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portsmouth, L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton.
Birmingham are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Southampton, W 2-1 @ Wrexham, L 1-6 v Brentford, D 2-2 v Bristol City.
Derby hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derby 1-0 Birmingham.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
