Where the market is wrong on Sheffield Utd v Bolton
Sheffield Utd meet Bolton in the Championship regular season - 4 at Bramall Lane, Sheffield.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Sheffield Utd, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Sheffield Utd on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Sheffield Utd arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Bolton, D 2-2 @ Cardiff, W 2-1 @ Blackburn, D 0-0 @ Swansea.
Bolton are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Sheffield Utd, L 0-1 v Lincoln, D 0-0 @ QPR, W 2-1 v Preston.
Sheffield Utd hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sheffield Utd 3-2 Bolton.
The market prices SHE at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on Bolton: a 15.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
