Where the market is wrong on Preston v Bristol City
Preston meet Bristol City in the Championship regular season - 4 at Deepdale, Preston.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Bristol City, 50% against 24%. Attacking output favors Bristol City on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Preston arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Bristol City, L 0-1 @ Charlton, L 0-4 v Everton, L 1-3 v Wolves.
Bristol City are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Preston, W 2-1 v Portsmouth, D 2-2 @ Birmingham, L 0-2 v Millwall.
Bristol City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Preston 1-3 Bristol City.
The market prices PRE at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Bristol City: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
