Where the market is wrong on West Brom v Burnley
West Brom meet Burnley in the Championship regular season - 2 at The Hawthorns, West Bromwich.
West Brom rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1400. Recent form leans West Brom, 70% against 20%. Attacking output favors West Brom on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans West Brom at 78%; double chance reads West Brom or draw 84%, Burnley or draw 41%.
West Brom arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Newcastle, W 3-1 v Burnley, W 2-1 @ Norwich, W 4-1 @ Rotherham.
Burnley are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Bradford, L 1-3 @ West Brom, D 2-2 v West Ham, D 1-1 v Notts County.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece with 6 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
The market prices WES at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on West Brom: a 22.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 88 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
