A 3-3 draw between CSKA 1948 and Maribor in a friendly was decided by fine margins and a late fightback, with the data showing a contest that was far closer than the pre-match expectations. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow home win, giving CSKA 1948 a 36% chance of victory, but the final scoreline reflected a more even contest than the probabilities suggested. The model's projection of a 1-0 home win proved inaccurate as both sides found the net three times, illustrating the inherent unpredictability of pre-season friendlies where squad rotation and fitness priorities often trump tactical structure.
Maribor took the lead in the 12th minute through Z. Repas, a normal goal that gave the visitors an early advantage and set the tone for an open encounter. CSKA 1948 equalised in the 28th minute via L. Dvali, levelling the score before half-time. The timing of Dvali's goal, coming after a sustained period of home pressure implied by the overall flow, ensured the hosts entered the interval on terms despite having conceded first.
The second half began with Maribor asserting control in decisive fashion. G. Komaromi restored the visitors' lead in the 49th minute, capitalising on what must have been a momentary lapse in the home defence immediately after the restart. A. Reghba extended the advantage to 3-1 just eight minutes later, in the 57th minute, suggesting a period of Maribor dominance that the raw goal timeline alone cannot fully capture. With the away side holding a two-goal lead and just over half an hour remaining, the match appeared to be slipping away from the hosts.
However, CSKA 1948 mounted a dramatic late comeback that completely reversed the momentum. G. Rusev scored in the 87th minute to reduce the deficit to one, offering a lifeline that seemed improbable moments earlier. Then, in the 90th minute, Rusev struck again to complete a remarkable turnaround and salvage a 3-3 draw. Rusev's double in the closing stages was the decisive individual contribution on a day when no other player managed more than one goal. There were no assists recorded for any of the six goals, indicating that all six were scored directly from open play without a final pass being credited.
The statistical picture is incomplete without detailed possession, shot or expected goals data. None were provided, and no player match ratings were supplied to indicate standout individual performances relative to their teammates. The lack of data on cards and substitutions suggests a clean, end-of-season friendly with limited competitive edge, though the six-goal total indicates neither defence was at full intensity. Without quantitative metrics, the analysis must fall back on the goal timeline, which shows a clear pattern of early Maribor efficiency followed by a late CSKA 1948 surge that compensated for earlier shortcomings.
For Maribor, the three separate goals from Repas, Komaromi and Reghba demonstrated a potent attack that was ultimately undone by an inability to close out the match. All three scorers found the net from open play, suggesting a clinical edge that was not sustained for the full 90 minutes. For CSKA 1948, the character shown to fight back from 3-1 down will be the main positive, particularly the composure of Rusev in finishing the two late chances under pressure. His brace in the final four minutes turned a potential defeat into a share of the spoils.
The result leaves both sides with equally mixed feelings. Maribor will regret surrendering a two-goal lead in the final minutes, while CSKA 1948 will be satisfied with a share of the spoils given the pre-match data that favoured them. For a friendly, the high-scoring nature and late drama provided useful match practice for both managers ahead of their respective competitive campaigns. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 home win, but the reality was a far more open, high-scoring affair that ended with honours even and provided both teams with clear defensive lessons to address before their next outings.
