Where the market is wrong on Angelholms FF v Kalmar FF
Angelholms FF meet Kalmar FF in the Svenska Cupen final.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kalmar FF, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Kalmar FF on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Kalmar FF at 59%; double chance reads Angelholms FF or draw 58%, Kalmar FF or draw 71%.
Angelholms FF arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Atvidabergs FF, L 0-7 v Kalmar FF, L 0-1 v Trollhättan, L 0-1 @ Kristianstad.
Kalmar FF are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Vasteras SK FK, W 7-0 @ Angelholms FF, L 0-4 v Hammarby FF, L 2-3 @ IFK Goteborg.
The market prices ANG at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Angelholms FF: a 17.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
