Where the market is wrong on Imst v TSV Hartberg
Imst meet TSV Hartberg in the Cup round of 64 at VELLY Arena Imst Tirol, Imst. The model makes Imst the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% IMS, 27% draw, 28% TSV.
Imst rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1504. Recent form leans Imst, 73% against 50%. Attacking output favors Imst on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Imst at 62%; double chance reads Imst or draw 72%, TSV Hartberg or draw 55%.
Imst arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 10 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v TSV Hartberg, L 0-2 @ Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, L 0-10 v Arminia Bielefeld, W 6-0 @ Kematen.
TSV Hartberg are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Imst, L 0-2 v Voitsberg, W 2-0 v First Vienna, W 3-0 v Příbram.
TSV Hartberg hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Imst 1-3 TSV Hartberg.
The market prices IMS at 5% implied. Our number sits apart on Imst: a 39.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
