FC Copenhagen edged AC Horsens 3-2 in a pre-season friendly, a result that closely aligned with the Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a narrow home victory. The model had given FC Copenhagen a 45 per cent chance of winning, with a projected 2-1 scoreline, and the actual match exceeded that expectation by a single goal. The five goals were evenly distributed across the first hour, but a flurry of three first-half strikes for FC Copenhagen proved decisive, despite AC Horsens' persistent threat.
The match began at a high tempo, with A. Cornelius opening the scoring for FC Copenhagen after just four minutes. However, the lead lasted only 17 minutes, as Y. Ouorou equalised for AC Horsens in the 21st minute. The scoring continued at pace, with Y. Moukoko converting a penalty in the 35th minute to restore the home side's advantage. A. Cornelius then struck again just before half-time, in first-half added time, giving FC Copenhagen a 3-1 lead at the interval. AC Horsens reduced the deficit once more early in the second half, with A. Justinussen scoring in the 52nd minute to make it 3-2.
Despite the narrow margin, the final 40 minutes of the match failed to produce any further goals. Both sides received a single yellow card, with the home side's caution arriving in the 42nd minute and the away side's in the 49th. The match also saw a combined total of 19 substitutions, with nine for FC Copenhagen and ten for AC Horsens, a typical feature of pre-season friendlies that disrupted any sustained rhythm. Without detailed possession, shot or expected goals data, the narrative is anchored entirely in the goal timings and card occurrences, leaving much of the statistical analysis reliant on the underlying projection.
A. Cornelius was the standout performer on the pitch, scoring twice in the first half to effectively settle the contest. His brace, coupled with Y. Moukoko's penalty, provided the firepower FC Copenhagen needed, while AC Horsens' efforts were largely concentrated on the individual strikes from Y. Ouorou and A. Justinussen, whose goals were not enough to secure a result. The home side's ability to score in clusters, with two goals in the final ten minutes of the first half, proved critical in establishing a lead that AC Horsens could not fully overcome.
The victory provides FC Copenhagen with a positive result in their pre-season preparations, demonstrating a clinical edge in front of goal that compensated for any defensive vulnerabilities. For AC Horsens, the defeat continues a pre-season of mixed results, with both sides likely to focus on defensive solidity ahead of their respective league campaigns. The match followed the general expectation set by the Lemeister model, which favoured the home side, though the final scoreline was slightly more open than the projected 2-1 outcome, reflecting the attacking intent shown by both teams in the first hour.
