Where the market is wrong on Anzhi v Izberbash
Anzhi meet Izberbash in the Cup round of 64. The model makes Anzhi the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% ANZ, 28% draw, 26% IZB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1448, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 38%. Attacking output favors Anzhi on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Anzhi at 63%; double chance reads Anzhi or draw 74%, Izberbash or draw 55%.
Anzhi arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 @ Rotor-2, L 0-2 @ Dinamo Makhachkala, D 2-2 v Forte Taganrog, L 0-1 @ Kuban Kholding.
Izberbash are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Lugansk, L 1-2 v FK Chayka 2, L 0-3 @ Shahter Taganrog, W 2-1 v Rubin Yalta.
The market prices ANZ at 10% implied. Our number sits apart on Anzhi: a 34.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output