Where the market is wrong on Fulham v Crystal Palace
Fulham meet Crystal Palace in the Premier League regular season - 3 at Craven Cottage, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 40%. Attacking output favors Crystal Palace on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Fulham arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sunderland, W 3-0 v AFC Wimbledon, L 2-3 v Chelsea, W 1-0 v VfB Stuttgart.
Crystal Palace are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Manchester City, L 0-2 @ Everton, L 0-3 @ SC Freiburg, W 2-1 @ Fulham.
Crystal Palace hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace.
The market prices FUL at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
