Where the market is wrong on Heart Of Midlothian v ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian meet ST Johnstone in the Premiership regular season - 4 at Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh.
ST Johnstone rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1581. Recent form leans ST Johnstone, 78% against 60%. Attacking output favors ST Johnstone on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.8 per match.
Heart Of Midlothian arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v ST Johnstone, D 1-1 @ Rapid Vienna, D 2-2 v Rapid Vienna, W 6-2 v Inverness CT.
ST Johnstone are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Heart Of Midlothian, L 0-1 @ ST Mirren, W 4-3 v Kilmarnock, D 1-1 v East Fife.
Heart Of Midlothian hold the recent head-to-head, 10 wins to 0 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone.
The market prices HEA at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on ST Johnstone: a 28.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
