Paks took a narrow edge into the second leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round tie against Panathinaikos, but the Greek side left Fehérvári úti stadion with a 2-1 victory that better reflected the balance of play. The Lemeister model had marginally favoured the home side before kick-off, with a 38 percent win probability, but the data showed the visitors were the more effective side. Panathinaikos held 60 percent of possession, attempted 18 shots to Paks' 15, and put six of those on target. The home side managed only two shots on goal and relied on five saves from their goalkeeper to keep the scoreline respectable. The expected goals narrative, while not explicitly stated in the data, is strongly implied by the shot volumes: 14 of Panathinaikos' attempts came from inside the box compared to 10 for Paks, and the visitors' six shots on target against two suggests they generated the higher-quality chances.
The opening goal came four minutes before half-time and was a setback for Paks. In the 41st minute, G. Vas turned the ball into his own net, giving Panathinaikos the lead without an assist recorded. The goal was the only one of the first half, during which the away side controlled the tempo. Panathinaikos completed 436 of 543 passes at an 80 percent accuracy rate, while Paks managed 248 accurate passes from 351 attempts at 71 percent. The visitors also created the better chances, with their inside-box shot count of 14 dwarfing Paks' 10, and their four corner kicks to Paks' five kept the home side from building sustained pressure. Paks' five offsides to Panathinaikos' none further illustrated their struggle to time runs against a disciplined defensive line.
Panathinaikos doubled their lead in the 55th minute through Santino Andino, who scored a normal goal to make it 2-0. Andino was the highest-rated player on the pitch, earning a 7.9 from the Lemeister model, and his goal proved decisive. The away side had been put under brief pressure when Triantafyllos Tsapras and Adam Gnezda Čerin both received yellow cards within a minute of each other just before the hour mark, but Panathinaikos absorbed the pressure without conceding until later. The visitors committed 13 fouls to Paks' nine, and their three yellow cards reflected a physical approach to protecting their lead, yet they managed to keep Paks to just one shot on target in the second half.
Paks pulled a goal back in the 71st minute through D. Bode, assisted by K. Horvath, to set up a tense finale. The goal came from one of Paks' few clear openings, as they managed only two shots on target all evening. The home side's five blocked shots to Panathinaikos' four indicate they were often forced to shoot from crowded areas, while their five offsides highlight a lack of timing in attacking runs. Paks also committed nine fouls to Panathinaikos' 13, and the away side's three yellow cards reflected a physical approach to protecting their lead. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of 2-1 to Paks was flipped by the away side's superior efficiency in front of goal.
Individually, Márió Zeke and Milán Győrfi both received 7.5 ratings for Paks, with József Windecker on 7.2. Zeke's rating suggests he was a steadying influence at the back, while Győrfi likely contributed to the goal with intelligent movement. For Panathinaikos, Etienne Camara also earned a 7.5, while Ahmed Touba posted a 7.3. Camara's midfield work was key to the 60 percent possession share, and Touba's defensive solidity helped limit Paks to two shots on target. The visitors' goalkeeper made only one save compared to Paks' five, underscoring the relative comfort of Panathinaikos' defensive work.
The result leaves Paks with a one-goal deficit to overturn in the second leg in Greece. Panathinaikos will take confidence from their control of possession and creation of chances, while Paks will need to find a way to generate more shots on target if they are to progress. The tie remains open, but the data from the first leg favours the Greek side, particularly given their ability to limit the home side to just two shots on goal and force five saves from their own goalkeeper. Paks' five offsides and lower pass accuracy suggest they will need a more cohesive attacking plan in the return leg.
