Where the market is wrong on BFA v Neptūną Klaipėda
BFA meet Neptūną Klaipėda in the 1 Lyga regular season - 21.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 63%. Attacking output favors Neptūną Klaipėda on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 71%. Draw no bet leans Neptūną Klaipėda at 55%; double chance reads BFA or draw 60%, Neptūną Klaipėda or draw 68%.
BFA arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Neptūną Klaipėda, D 0-0 @ Dainava, W 4-2 v Transinvest 2, L 0-1 @ FA Šiauliai II.
Neptūną Klaipėda are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ BFA, L 0-4 v Babrungas, W 2-0 @ Tauras, W 1-0 @ Garliava.
Neptūną Klaipėda hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: BFA 2-0 Neptūną Klaipėda.
The market prices BFA at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Neptūną Klaipėda: a 7.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
