Korona Kielce v Gornik Zabrze

Korona Kielce meet Gornik Zabrze in the Ekstraklasa regular season - 2 at Exbud Arena, Kielce. The model makes Gornik Zabrze the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 26% KOR, 33% draw, 41% GOR.

Gornik Zabrze rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1466. Recent form leans Gornik Zabrze, 70% against 45%. Attacking output favors Gornik Zabrze on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Gornik Zabrze at 61%; double chance reads Korona Kielce or draw 59%, Gornik Zabrze or draw 74%.

Korona Kielce arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Aris, L 0-1 @ Jagiellonia, L 0-2 v Nieciecza, D 0-0 v Stal Rzeszów.

Gornik Zabrze are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Slask Wroclaw, L 0-1 @ Fenerbahçe, L 1-3 @ Lech Poznan, W 2-0 @ FC Nordsjaelland.

Gornik Zabrze hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Korona Kielce.

The market prices KOR at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Gornik Zabrze: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.