HJK Helsinki v Ilves: the model read
HJK Helsinki meet Ilves in the Suomen Cup semi-finals at Bolt Arena, Helsinki. The model makes HJK Helsinki the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% HJK, 27% draw, 28% ILV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans HJK Helsinki, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors HJK Helsinki on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans HJK Helsinki at 61%; double chance reads HJK Helsinki or draw 72%, Ilves or draw 56%.
HJK Helsinki arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Turku PS, W 5-0 v Coleraine FC, W 2-1 v VPS, L 0-2 @ Lahti.
Ilves are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lahti, L 0-1 @ Stjarnan, W 3-1 @ Turku PS, W 3-1 v FC Differdange 03.
Ilves hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: HJK Helsinki 2-1 Ilves.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
