Metz v Guingamp: the model read
Metz meet Guingamp in the Ligue 2 regular season - 1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz. The model makes Metz the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% MET, 31% draw, 32% GUI.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 31%. Attacking output favors Metz on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Metz at 54%; double chance reads Metz or draw 68%, Guingamp or draw 63%.
Metz arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 14 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Sochaux, W 6-0 v Seraing United, W 2-1 v Racing FC Union Luxembourg, D 1-1 v Versailles.
Guingamp are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Concarneau, L 1-3 @ Rennes, L 0-1 @ Clermont Foot, L 0-1 v Bastia.
Guingamp hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Guingamp 0-3 Metz.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
