AZ Alkmaar v Groningen: the model read
AZ Alkmaar meet Groningen in the Eredivisie regular season - 12 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% AZ , 28% draw, 28% GRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1565 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans AZ Alkmaar, 61% against 40%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 73%. Draw no bet leans AZ Alkmaar at 61%; double chance reads AZ Alkmaar or draw 72%, Groningen or draw 56%.
AZ Alkmaar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Genk, D 1-1 @ Zulte Waregem, L 0-1 v Anderlecht, W 2-1 v Almere City FC.
Groningen are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v AEK Athens FC, W 3-2 v Emmen, L 1-2 @ Heracles, L 0-2 @ Ajax.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
