Where the market is wrong on AZ Alkmaar v Willem II
AZ Alkmaar meet Willem II in the Eredivisie regular season - 6 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1601, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans AZ Alkmaar, 74% against 63%. Attacking output favors AZ Alkmaar on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.4 per match.
AZ Alkmaar arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 15 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Willem II, W 3-2 @ Heerenveen, W 5-2 v GO Ahead Eagles, W 2-0 @ Fortuna Sittard.
Willem II are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ AZ Alkmaar, L 0-3 v Excelsior, D 2-2 v Heerenveen, L 1-4 v NEC Nijmegen.
AZ Alkmaar hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II.
The market prices AZ at 83% implied. Our number sits apart on Willem II: a 21.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
