Willem II v Excelsior: the model read
Willem II meet Excelsior in the Eredivisie regular season - 5 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg. The model makes Willem II the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% WIL, 30% draw, 28% EXC.
Willem II rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1512. Recent form leans Willem II, 71% against 53%. Attacking output favors Excelsior on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Willem II at 60%; double chance reads Willem II or draw 72%, Excelsior or draw 58%.
Willem II arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v FC Eindhoven, L 1-2 v Quick Boys, W 2-1 @ FC Volendam, L 1-2 v FC Volendam.
Excelsior are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ NAC Breda, W 2-0 @ Dordrecht, W 3-2 v Cambuur, W 3-2 @ Sparta Rotterdam.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Willem II 3-1 Excelsior.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
