Where the market is wrong on VVV Venlo v De Graafschap
VVV Venlo meet De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 3 at Seacon - De Koel, Venlo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 42%. Attacking output favors De Graafschap on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 87%, over 2.5 goals around 91%. Draw no bet leans VVV Venlo at 52%; double chance reads VVV Venlo or draw 65%, De Graafschap or draw 62%.
VVV Venlo arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v De Graafschap, W 2-0 @ NAC Breda, L 3-4 v Heracles, L 2-3 v AS Eupen.
De Graafschap are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ VVV Venlo, L 2-5 v Jong AZ, D 1-1 @ Helmond Sport, L 1-5 v Excelsior.
VVV Venlo hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
The market prices VVV at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on VVV Venlo: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
