Where the market is wrong on LD Alajuelense v San Carlos
LD Alajuelense meet San Carlos in the Primera División apertura - 5 at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto, Alajuela.
LD Alajuelense rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1444. Recent form leans LD Alajuelense, 60% against 39%. Attacking output favors LD Alajuelense on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans LD Alajuelense at 64%; double chance reads LD Alajuelense or draw 75%, San Carlos or draw 55%.
LD Alajuelense arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v San Carlos, L 0-1 @ Firpo, W 2-1 v Puntarenas FC, W 3-0 @ CS Herediano.
San Carlos are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ LD Alajuelense, W 1-0 v CS Herediano, L 0-2 @ Inter San Carlos, L 1-2 @ Deportivo Saprissa.
LD Alajuelense hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: LD Alajuelense 0-1 San Carlos.
The market prices LD at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on San Carlos: a 9.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
