Where the market is wrong on CSKA Sofia v Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia meet Cherno More Varna in the First League regular season - 7 at Balgarska Armiya Stadium, Sofia.
CSKA Sofia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1489. Recent form leans CSKA Sofia, 69% against 48%. Attacking output favors CSKA Sofia on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.
CSKA Sofia arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Cherno More Varna, L 0-2 v OFI, L 0-3 @ OFI, W 5-0 v Botev Vratsa.
Cherno More Varna are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ CSKA Sofia, W 3-1 v Dunav Ruse, L 1-4 @ CSKA 1948, L 2-3 v Ludogorets.
Cherno More Varna hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More Varna.
The market prices CSK at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Cherno More Varna: a 11.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
