Where the market is wrong on CSKA 1948 v Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948 meet Arda Kardzhali in the First League regular season - 3 at Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia. The model makes CSKA 1948 the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% CSK, 32% draw, 30% ARD.
The baseline ratings are close, 1598 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans CSKA 1948, 64% against 55%. Attacking output favors CSKA 1948 on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans CSKA 1948 at 55%; double chance reads CSKA 1948 or draw 70%, Arda Kardzhali or draw 62%.
CSKA 1948 arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Botev Vratsa, D 0-0 @ Spartak Trnava, D 2-2 @ Spartak Varna, W 1-0 @ Železničar Pančevo.
Arda Kardzhali are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 2 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Slavia Sofia, D 1-1 @ Septemvri Sofia, L 0-1 @ Botev Vratsa, D 0-0 v Beitar Jerusalem.
CSKA 1948 hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Arda Kardzhali 3-0 CSKA 1948.
The market prices CSK at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Arda Kardzhali: a 7.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
